The increase will be driven by an aging and more diverse population, according to a new report from the American Heart Association
The majority of adults in America will have some form of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by 2050, according to a new report from the American Heart Association (AHA). The cost of CVD will triple, to around $1.8 trillion a year.
The report states that the increase will be driven by an aging and more diverse population, and by significant increases in risk factors, especially high blood pressure and obesity.
Cardiovascular disease refers to a number of different conditions, which include coronary heart disease (which causes heart attacks), heart failure, arrythmias (irregular heartbeat), heart defects, strokes, diseases of the blood vessels and high blood pressure. Although high blood pressure is considered a form of heart disease, the new report analysed it as a separate risk factor from CVD, since it is a leading cause of heart disease and strokes.
Heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the US. One person dies every 33 seconds from heart disease in the US. That’s around 700,000 deaths a year, or one in every five deaths.
On the basis of current trends, the report predicts shocking increases in ill health associated with CVD. 61% of adults will have a diagnosis of CVD by 2050, or 184 million compared to 124 million in 2020. Increases in diagnoses of high-blood pressure will be responsible for this increase.
Stroke prevalence will double, from 10 million to 20 million adults.
Obesity will increase from 43.1% of adults to 60.6%, and diabetes will increase from 16.3% to 26.8%.
Although the study focuses on adults, it also considers trends among children. Childhood obesity is predicted to increase from 20.6% to 33%, with the highest increases being among children aged two to five and teenagers aged 12 to 19.
Another focus of the study was on demographic trends. Hispanic and Asian populations will see a disproportionate increase in CVD diagnoses and risk factors like obesity and diabetes. The authors of the study believe this is a clear sign of “systemic racism” in US society and healthcare.
“We found larger increases in the prevalence of CVD and risk factors, and in the number of people with these conditions, among people from racially and ethnically diverse backgrounds,” says Joynt Maddox, an associate professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.
“Some of this is due to demographic shifts in the U.S., with projections suggesting that Asian and Hispanic populations will nearly double by 2060. However, much of the inequity we see in CVD and risk factors remains attributed to systemic racism, as well as socioeconomic factors and access to care.”
