The populace could be gearing up for a fight, but if violence doesn’t spiral within the next 24-48 hours, the situation is likely to remain stable.
Update(02:00ET): The Venezuelan government has announced official election results shortly after midnight: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has won a third term with 51% of the vote, announced the country’s electoral authority, with 80% of ballot boxes counted. But there are widespread reports that several key exit polls pointed to a huge opposition upset victory by Edmundo González.
The opposition is claiming victory and that the election has been stolen amid reports that Maduro’s security forces have deployed significant numbers of armored vehicles and heavily armed-police to the streets of Caracas ahead of likely unrest.
The opposition is further calling on the military to turn against Maduro and back the ‘rightful’ victory of Gonzalez.
Venezuela’s political opposition vehemently rejected the electoral authority’s ruling that Nicolás Maduro was reelected as the nation’s president, calling on the military to intervene https://t.co/mDQI7sWEEb
— Bloomberg (@business) July 29, 2024
The Associated Press has detailed in an overnight update:
Venezuela’s opposition claimed Edmundo González defeated President Nicolás Maduro in Sunday’s presidential election, setting up a showdown with the government, which earlier declared Maduro the winner.
“The Venezuelans and the entire world know what happened,” González said in his first remarks. Opposition leader María Corina Machado made the announcement standing alongside González, whose margin of victory she said was “overwhelming.” Earlier the opposition said it had obtained voting tallies from about 30% of ballot boxes nationwide, with more expected overnight.
The National Electoral Council, which is controlled by Maduro loyalists, has yet to provide the tallies from 30,000 polling booths nationwide.
Regardless of what actually happen or what will happen in terms of the possibility of violence, it’s clear that the leftist and socialist Venezuelan government just suffered its most significant electoral test and shock in decades.
Some regional and external governments have signaled they will not recognize Maduro’s ‘win’…
BREAKING: Venezuelan National Electoral Council says President Nicolas Maduro has won the election despite exit polls suggesting the opposite.
The council claimed Maduro won with 51.20% of the vote.
Argentina president Javier Milei announced that Argentina would not be… pic.twitter.com/ItctgVzvz9
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 29, 2024
The populace could be gearing up for a fight, but if violence doesn’t spiral within the next 24-48 hours, the situation is likely to remain stable. All eyes will also be on Washington Monday, waiting to see how forcefully the US administration condemns the outcome.
Meanwhile, an interesting recent admission and revelation…
Ahead of Venezuela’s election, John Bolton admitted to the Washington Post that he knew that the Trump admin’s crippling sanctions and coup attempt against Venezuela would destroy its economy and force millions to flee:
“There was no doubt the sanctions, along with the general… pic.twitter.com/woW7cVYlf3
— Aaron Maté (@aaronjmate) July 29, 2024
* * *
President Nicolas Maduro alarmed and riled his enemies as well as Washington and its allies by declaring just ahead of Sunday’s elections: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success and greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.”
Many pundits are taking this as a warning that he’ll refuse to give up power in the unlikely event he loses his bid for six more years in office, which would be his third term. While there are eight names total on the ballot as Venezuelans wait in long lines to vote Sunday, 74-year old opposition candidate and former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia is considered the only real contender who has a chance of defeating Maduro.
González is basically the surrogate candidate for María Corina Machado, who has organized the opposition and has become wildly popular, even recently gaining name recognition abroad and in US media.
Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have ruled over the central American country since 2013, after he took over following the death of his mentor, far-left icon Hugo Chavez.
Millions of desperate citizens have already left their country in search of work and opportunities abroad amid a crushed economy and rampant accusations of corruption against Maduro government officials. Millions more may leave if his power is extended for another term.
Polls have seen massive queues since they opened at 6am, but already there are reports of barriers in pro-opposition areas and stories of black-clad, masked men blocking voting stations, as The New York Times has alleged. “The destiny of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro has proclaimed at campaign rallies, while decrying efforts of a hidden imperialist foreign hand to thwart his aims, as well as longtime US-led sanctions.
Both the United States and Brazil have issued messages of “we’re watching closely”:
Asked in a press briefing whether Maduro was likely to rig Sunday’s vote, John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, said it was difficult to know how the situation would play out but that the U.S. wanted “to make it clear to Mr. Maduro that we’re watching, we’re watching closely.”
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also urged Maduro to respect the results, telling international news agencies that he was “scared” by the Venezuelan’s recent remarks, Reuters reported.
Brazil’s president added that Maduro “needs to learn that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.”
Very, very long queues to vote in Venezuela’s election today. Here’s a timelapse #VenezuelaVOTA #venezuela pic.twitter.com/l3jMQ4hZJH
— Catherine Ellis (@Cat_lucy1) July 28, 2024
Some analysts expect some degree of unrest and violence to break out no matter who emerges victorious, with either side set to contest.
“On the basis of their own exit polls, the opposition will probably declare victory and push for regime change, ushering in a period of heightened political tension and uncertainty ahead of the inauguration,” Andre Masuko, a research analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, stated to CNBC.
President Nicolas Maduro ahead of Sunday’s elections: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success & greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.” pic.twitter.com/rao45c0NIC
— Vera Bergengruen (@VeraMBergen) July 24, 2024
“However, we do not expect the Maduro regime to be overthrown. His strict control over the country’s institutions, including the security forces, the judiciary and the electoral national council (CNE), will be instrumental in helping him to stay in power,” he underscored.
One big unpredictable scenario of huge consequence is whether the US would throw its support behind any opposition allegations claims of widespread election abuse and fraud.
Meanwhile, the usual Neocon suspects in Congress are alleging a ‘stolen’ national election before the ballots are even in…
If the election in #Venezuela today is legitimate Maduro will lose by 40 points
But the election commission that counts the votes is controlled by the Maduro regime and they will do everything they can to try and steal it pic.twitter.com/EhxzGZjb1j
— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) July 28, 2024
Washington weighing in too forcefully would set the stage for another anti-opposition crackdown by Maduro government security services.
