“The bottom line is this. If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it.”
Democrats should hold off on celebrating recent polling favoring Kamala Harris since the exact same scenario played out in 2016, warned CNN analyst Harry Enten.
Discussing how polls in 2016 and 2020 significantly underestimated Donald Trump’s support in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Enten said the latest polls from the New York Times and Sienna College showing Kamala leading are within the margin of error.
3 caution points for Democrats…
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
“The bottom line is this,” Enten told the CNN viewing audience. “If you have any idea, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race.”
“If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win,” he added.
Continuing, Enten pointed out while enthusiasm for Kamala is high, it doesn’t necessarily mean she has the votes.
“So the bottom line here is yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we’re not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain vote,” the poll guru said.
Enten went on to reiterate Democrats shouldn’t get ahead of themselves and celebrate too early, lest they risk eating crow.
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“Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016. So the bottom line is yes. Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there’s a long way to go. The polls can shift.”
“The almost certain vote hasn’t actually shifted, and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point,” Enten said.
The poll analyst summed up his take on X with three key points for Dems:
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump’s more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don’t say they’re more likely to vote now than in May
Indeed, while Dems are enthusiastic about shedding the ailing dementia-ridden Joe Biden, it’s out of the fire and into the frying pan with their new problematic, radically far-left substitute.
