Opinions about and support for Kamala Harris have not improved after the DNC
There has been “no overall bounce in support” for Kamala Harris after the DNC, according to a new poll.
The ABC News / Ipsos poll shows the support for Harris against Donald Trump “is essentially the same now as it was before the Democratic convention.”
The poll suggests clearly, according to Langer, that “most vote preferences look locked in.”
The survey of just under 2,500 adults from a random national sample, said 50% of respondents favoured Harris and 46% Trump.
“Among Americans who don’t currently support Harris, 86% rule out doing so, and among people who don’t currently support Trump, 89% wouldn’t consider him. Among likely voters, these rise to 96% and 97%, respectively. As such, getting out the vote likely will be more fruitful than trying to change people’s minds.”
The main takeaway from the poll seems to be that Democrats are more satisfied with Harris than they were with Biden.
“Views on the choice of candidates are better than in July, but far from ideal,” writes ABC’s Gary Langer.
“The public by 53%-45% is more apt to be dissatisfied than satisfied with a Harris-Trump contest. But that compares with 71%-28% in July, with Biden in the race. The difference reflects more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents on board with Harris than with Biden.”
The poll also suggests that “any help for Trump from Kennedy is scant.”
“Seventy-nine percent overall say Kennedy’s support makes no difference in their choice. Twelve percent say it makes them more likely to support Trump—but nearly all who say so are Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, so apt to be Trump supporters in the first place. Nine percent overall—nearly all Democrats and Democratic leaners—say Kennedy’s endorsement leaves them less likely to support Trump.”
The poll shows that the public favours Trump on four key issues—the economy, inflation, immigration and the Israel-Hamas war—whereas Harris has the edge on race relations, abortion and healthcare. With regard to crime and safety, Trump and Harris were tied.
Other polling suggests a much bleaker view for Kamala Harris. As we reported on Sunday, analysis from Real Clear Polling shows that Harris is in a significantly worse position relative to Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden were in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns.
Polling averages show that in August 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 4.6 point advantage over Trump, which is more than double Kamala Harris’s 1.8 point lead at present.
Joe Biden had an even larger lead in August 2020: 6.3 points, which is well over three times Kamala’s current lead.
As we know, Trump beat Hillary in 2016, and even in the official certified result for 2020 Trump came within thousands of votes of Biden in key swing states.
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