Trump is still polling ahead of Joe Biden nationally and in key battleground states
Polling conducted in the aftermath of Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts suggests the verdict has done little to change the minds of voters.
Various polls, including aggregate analyses of polls by RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight, show that Trump still leads Joe Biden on a national level.
A detailed poll by The New York Times suggests that, although Trump’s popularity has fallen by around 2% on the national level, he still maintains a 1% lead over Joe Biden, with 93% of those who supported Trump before his trial continuing to support him, despite the verdict.
Of that 7% whose support for Trump has changed, 3% say they now support Biden and 4% claim to be undecided.
Trump is also polling well in key battleground states like Arizona, Nevada and Virginia. Almost two thirds of voters in Nevada and Arizona believe Trump’s conviction “doesn’t matter,” and as of 6 June, Trump maintains the same five-point lead in both of these states that he held before the trial began. In 2020, Biden won Arizona by a margin of just 0.4%, and Nevada by 2.4%.
In Virginia, Trump and Biden now appear to be tied in terms of popularity. Biden won Virginia by more than 10% in 2020.
“I’m hard-pressed to find any evidence in the polls that the conviction has made much of a difference at all in the public, in the presidential ballot test,” polling expert Neil Newhouse told The Epoch Times.
Experts, including Mr Newhouse, believe that the looming presidential debates, the first of which is due to take place on 27 June, will have a far greater impact on voters.
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