“The discussion will not change the direction of travel for US-China relations. The American side will not lift controls on the exports of advanced technology to China.”
US President Joe Biden is expected to meet Chairman Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit held in San Francisco between November 11 and 17. What to expect from the meeting?
The Xi-Biden meeting will come amid simmering tensions between Washington and Beijing over Sino-American tit-for-tat trade restrictions, forthcoming elections on the Taiwan Island, and the US military buildup in the Asia Pacific.
Unlike Chairman Xi, who was awarded a third five-year term in March, Biden is bracing for the 2024 elections with his polling numbers falling as low as 38.8% per the US survey aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
“The November 2024 US presidential elections are less than one year away and already dominating the American domestic political agenda,” Agathe Demarais, geoeconomics senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Sputnik. “The perceived need to adopt a tough position vis-a-vis China is perhaps the only topic that attracts broad bipartisan support. Biden will therefore seek to use his meeting with Xi to demonstrate statesmanship and resolve in a bid to score points with both Democratic and Republican voters.”
Still, one should not expect a lot of muscle-flexing on the part of the US incumbent president as both sides are keen to “stabilize” the relationship and to enter a “no surprises” mode, according to Demarais.
Previously, Washington and Beijing introduced a series of mutual restrictions in the high-tech field. Beijing suspects that the US is seeking to curb China’s rise by exerting bans on the transfer of semiconductor technology, know-how and investment in the People’s Republic’s tech sector. At the same time, the Chinese and American economies remain intertwined meaning that Washington’s restrictions are fraught with a blowback risk.
“Washington and Beijing know that they have nothing to gain in ratcheting up tensions with the other side,” Demarais said. “Such a move would harm the US economy – a key determinant of Biden’s re-election chances. Seen from China, a rise in US-China tensions would further spook multinationals and accelerate their plans to shift production away from Chinese soil, fuelling unemployment.”
At the same time, Beijing is likely to seek Washington guarantees that “the American side will not favor any candidate ahead of the [Taiwan] island’s January 2024 presidential election,” she added. Presently, the election odds of the pro-Western ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) does not seem clear as Taiwanese parties seeking to cool down cross-strait ties with China are trying to win the islanders’ hearts and minds.
It would be productive for both sides if they agree on the ban on the use of AI in autonomous weapons, such as drones; and if Biden clearly articulates that Washington recognizes “China’s right to grow” and that “de-risking” does not mean placing curbs on China’s rise, according to Demarais.
Still, one should not hold one’s breath in anticipation of any breakthrough during the Xi-Biden talks, per the ECFR expert:
“The discussion will not change the direction of travel for US-China relations. The American side will not lift controls on the exports of advanced technology to China. Meanwhile, Chinese efforts to boost self-sufficiency and develop a dual-circulation model will continue apace.”
Likewise, it’s unlikely that China would give up its fruitful cooperation with Russia, per Demarais.
“US calls that China clamps down on the export of high-tech goods to Russia are wishful thinking and the American side should probably not spend too much time on making such demands,” the geoeconomics expert concluded.”
