Ministry of Defense’s military scenario claims Russian “hybrid” attack on NATO will spark global conflict.
The German military is apparently preparing for an attack by Russia following the 2024 election that may escalate into a wider global conflict.
A classified Berlin Ministry of Defense document obtained by Bild, called “Alliance Defence 2025”, details a timeline of escalating conflict with Russia following its “hybrid attack” on NATO’s eastern flank.
According to the “training scenario” document, the Bundeswehr (German Armed Forces) are preparing for a Russian attack on Eastern Europe this February.
The document claims United States financial aid for Ukraine drying up will embolden Russia to mobilize 200,000 troops and launch a “spring offensive” against Ukrainian forces in tandem with “severe cyberattacks.”
From there, the document lays out how the conflict will escalate month by month, culminating into a direct confrontation between Western and Russian forces.
From Pravda:
Russia’s at first covert and then increasingly overt attack on the West begins in July. Cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare are anticipated, primarily in the Baltic states. Clashes occur, which Russia uses as an excuse to initiate large-scale military exercises on its territory and in Belarus.
According to the scenario, this situation could escalate in October if Russia deploys troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad. From December 2024, an artificially induced “border conflict” and “clashes with numerous casualties” unfold in the vicinity of the Suwalki Gap (Suwalki Corridor).
At a moment when the United States may be without a leader for several weeks after the elections, Russia, with the support of Belarus, repeats the 2014 invasion of Ukraine but on NATO territory. In May 2025, NATO decides on containment measures, and on D-Day, NATO deploys 300,000 military personnel to the eastern flank, including 30,000 soldiers from the Bundeswehr.
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on the Bild report but suggested the outlet is “fake news.”
“I would not comment on this Bild report,” Peskov said. “Recently, this newspaper has regularly stooped to publishing various fake news items and canards.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly outlined his country’s military and political objectives related to its special military operation in Ukraine since 2022, specifically emphasizing that Russia will not expand its invasion to other European countries.
But that hasn’t stopped Western leaders like Joe Biden from baselessly claiming Russia will invade NATO allies and threatening to deploy US troops to fight Russia unless Congress authorizes more financial aid for Ukraine.
“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said in December. “If Putin attacks a NATO ally — if he keeps going and then he attacks a NATO ally — we’ve committed as a NATO member to defend every inch of NATO territory, and we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops.”
Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin also warned last week at a “People and Defense” conference that “there could be war in Sweden.”
However, this comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled he wants to end the war with Russia after asking Switzerland to organize a “high-level peace conference” on Monday.
“I confirmed that Switzerland is ready to organize the conference,” said Swiss President Viola Amherd at a joint press conference. “We agreed that the details of the further approach will be looked into in depth in order to make this peace process a success.”